Industry: Artificial Intelligence & Decision Intelligence Software

About Company:

BigBear.ai provides AI-powered decision intelligence solutions to customers across defense, national security, supply chain, logistics, manufacturing, travel, healthcare, and autonomous systems. With platforms like VANE (Virtual Anticipation Network) and advanced analytics, they help decision-makers interpret complex data and act with precision. Their clientele includes U.S. Defense & Intelligence agencies, border control, and enterprises seeking AI-augmented decision support. Headquarters: McLean, VA.

Company History:

Founded in 1988, BigBear.ai built expertise in mission-critical analytics before going public (NYSE: BBAI). Over time, it expanded into commercial sectors, providing decision intelligence and sensor fusion solutions. Recent leadership includes CEO Kevin McAleenan, and the company remains focused on leveraging AI for operational edge decision-making.

Company Advantage Over Competitors:

• Specialized decision intelligence built for complex operations in defense, logistics, healthcare, and supply chains—differentiates from generic analytics firms.
• Deep domain expertise: trusted by U.S. government agencies, reflecting rigorous mission-level requirements and system integrity.
• Proprietary platforms like VANE and sensor orchestration enabling real-time edge-level decisions and AI orchestration across environments.

Risk Factors You May Want to Consider:

• Significant financial underperformance: Q4 2024 net loss of $108M—far wider than prior year’s $21M. Q1 2025 EPS came in at –$0.25, missing expectations of –$0.06.
• Revenue shortfalls and soft guidance: Q4 revenue of $43.8M missed estimates; full-year 2025 guidance lowered to $160M–$180M (below consensus of $190M) and adjusted EBITDA projected in the negative single-digit millions.
• Government and defense contract dependency: Revenue and backlog are sensitive to U.S. federal agency budgets and priorities; government shutdowns or spending shifts pose meaningful risk.
• High fixed-cost base and margin pressure: Operating costs rose due to SG&A expansion, R&D investment, and integration headcount from acquisitions like Pangiam, while gross margin remains around 21%.

What Makes This Company Special or a Good Investment?

• Niche in high-stakes AI decision tools: Positioned uniquely at the intersection of defense-grade analytics, edge AI, and predictive modeling for critical infrastructure.
• Improving net loss trajectory: Q1 2025 saw net loss shrink to –$62M vs. –$127.8M in Q1 2024, though driven partly by non-recurring impairments. Adjusted EBITDA remains slightly negative but improving.
• Backlog strength: Ending backlog stood at $385M as of March 31, 2025, indicating longer-term revenue visibility despite near-term softness.
• Upcoming catalyst: Q2 2025 earnings on August 11, 2025 will clarify whether new contract wins or backlog momentum improve visibility.